Mizuho sees upcoming Medicare Advantage 2027 rates as positive catalyst

Mizuho expects the upcoming release of the Medicare Advantage 2027 Advance Notice to be a positive catalyst for the managed sector, especially for companies with the greatest exposure to Medicare Advance, Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Elevance Health (ELV). An additional positive rate increase will increase investor confidence in the margin recovery story across the managed care industry and will be a key catalyst for stocks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho believes the Street is expecting a 5% rate increase. Any increase above this will be positive for the managed care companies, the firm contends. It thinks the increase could be in the 9%-10% range, similar to the final 2026 rate announcement.