MediaAlpha sees Q4 revenue $280M-$300M, consensus $290.62M

For the fourth quarter of 2025, MediaAlpha (MAX) currently expects the following: “Transaction Value between $620 million – $645 million, representing a 27% year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the guidance range. Excluding under-65 health, we expect Transaction Value to be up 38% year over year at the midpoint. Revenue between $280 million – $300 million, representing a 4% year-over-year decrease at the midpoint of the guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA between $27.5 million – $29.5 million, representing a 22% year-over-year decrease at the midpoint of the guidance range, including an $8 million – $9 million year-over-year decline in Contribution from under-65. Excluding under-65 health, we expect Contribution to increase by high single digits and Adjusted EBITDA to be roughly flat year over year. We expect Contribution less Adjusted EBITDA to be approximately the same as the Q3 2025 level.”