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MA Stars loss for Humana baked into earnings bridge, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright reiterated an Equal Weight rating and $290 price target on Humana (HUM) after a court granted the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ motion to dismiss the case the company brought against it and defined all other pending motions as moot. While the firm awaits a decision on whether Humana will appeal or not, it said it is important to note that Humana’s earnings bridge to 2028 already assumed Medicare Advantage Stars lawsuit loss in addition to continued Stars challenges in 2027 before returning to top quartile Stars performance in 2028. The firm added that Humana told it that it has exhausted the administrative appeals process with CMS and is exploring all available options including an appeal, a re-filing of the case, and other options.

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