Here’s what Wall St. experts are saying about Tesla ahead of earnings

Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report results on its fiscal first quarter on Wednesday, April 22, with a conference call scheduled for 5:30 pm EDT. What to watch for:

Meet Samuel – Your Personal Investing Prophet

Looking for exposure to SpaceX & Anthropic? Check out AGIX ETF

Click here to check out Tesla’s recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.

TEMPERED VIEW: Barclays keeps an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a $360 price target into the Q1 report. A key question on the earnings call will be how much incremental spending Tesla will need to incur for its physical AI projects, especially Terafab, the firm tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes Terafab could cost in the mid-single digit trillion dollar range if fully built out. While Tesla’s capex is unlikely to “exponentially increase,” a further step up from the elevated $20B figure Tesla talked to on the last earnings call is likely, contends the firm. Barclays attributes the recent weakness in the shares to little progress being disclosed on Robotaxi and Optimus. The selloff “could imply on the surface an opportunity for the stock to outperform” on the Q1 results, but the firm takes a “more tempered view into the print,” as commentary of incremental capex “could be perceived negatively.”

MORE BALANCED: Last week, UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded Tesla to Neutral from Sell with an unchanged price target of $352. The firm says current share levels “more evenly balance” Tesla’s near-term demand challenges and investment period with its long-term physical AI opportunity. Tesla shares trade more on sentiment and momentum than fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes concerns over electric vehicle demand, a Q1 energy shortfall, higher costs, higher capital spending requirements, and slow progress of robo-taxi and Optimus have weighed on stock. However, the firm expects eventual progress on robo-taxi and Optimus and continues to view Tesla as a leader in physical AI.

HIGHER MID-TERM GROWTH: Jefferies raised the firm’s price target on Tesla to $350 from $300 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares ahead of Q1 results due on April 22. Q1 results “will show further widening of the gap between vision and execution” and ambitions to offer Robotaxi service across 25%-50% of potential U.S. markets by year-end “look beyond reach,” the firm tells investors. Barring a convincing announcement on robotaxi roll-out, the report “may fuel concern about funding and raise the logic of an eventual merger with SpaceX,” but Tesla “continues to deliver vision while facing slow moving competitors,” adds Jefferies, which cites higher mid-term growth for the firm’s higher price target

TRANSITIONAL YEAR: Tesla reported Q1 vehicle deliveries and energy deployments below consensus expectations, alongside weaker-than-prior-year production levels, with financial metrics expected to reflect modest margins and negative free cash flow, Cantor Fitzgerald tells investors in a research note. Despite near-term softness, FY26 remains framed as a transitional year, with focus shifting toward autonomy, AI, and robotics initiatives such as Robotaxi, Optimus, and expanded autonomous deployments in Europe, supported by elevated capex and future production ramp plans, the firm says. Cantor has an Overweight rating and $510 price target on the stock.

DELIVERIES: Earlier this month, Tesla said that in the first quarter, the company produced over 408,000 vehicles, delivered over 358,000 vehicles and deployed 8.8 GWh of energy storage products.

William Blair pointed out at the time that Tesla’s Q1 deliveries of 358,023 came in slightly below consensus expectations. The Model 3 and Y miss was slightly offset by better sales in S and X, which were driven by last-chance purchases before the models are sun-setted, the firm tells investors in a research note. Blair is “not surprised” by the report, saying global electric vehicle demand excluding China remains under pressure, and Tesla is “actively sacrificing its EV business in favor of a fully autonomous future.” Energy storage deployments of 8.8 GWh is a “big miss,” well below the Street’s 14.4 GWh expectation, adds the firm. Blair says that while the business “can be lumpy” and swing depending on customer grid hook-up timing, this does not fully explain the drop-off. The firm has a Market Perform rating on Tesla.

OUTLOOK: According to current consensus data from Yahoo Finance, Tesla is expected to report Q1 EPS of 36c and Q1 revenue of $22.35B. For FY26, the company is expected to report EPS of $2.02 and revenue of $102.25B.