Crypto Currents: Potential buyers reportedly looking at Gemini assets

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POTENTIAL BUYERS CIRCLING GEMINI ASSETS: Potential buyers are exploring acquiring Gemini’s (GEMI) shuttered European and U.K. operations to secure regulatory licenses, rather than pursuing a full takeover of the exchange, according to CoinDesk’s Will Canny, citing a person with direct knowledge of the matter. The exchange backed by the Winklevoss twins announces in February it would reduce its global workforce by 25% and close UK, EU and Australia operations, while retaining U.S. and Singapore businesses.

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on Gemini to $6 from $13 and kept an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Better Q1 earnings for brokers and exchanges should modestly beat consensus, but the firm sees modest forward estimate risk and notef in a preview for the group that its forecasts are now 4%-5% below consensus in 2026-27 on average.

Morgan Stanley also lowered the firm’s price target on Robinhood (HOOD) to $95 from $147 and kept an Equal Weight rating on the shares.

MORGAN STANLEY LAUNCHES MORGAN STANLEY BITCOIN TRUST: Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MS) announced Wednesday the launch of Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, an exchange-traded product that seeks to track the performance of bitcoin. MSBT seeks to track the performance of bitcoin, as measured by the performance of the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark 4PM NY Settlement Rate, which is calculated based on an aggregation of executed trade flow of major bitcoin spot exchanges. MSBT’s unitary delegated sponsor fee is 0.14%, which is currently the lowest bitcoin ETP sponsor fee as of this release. Coinbase (COIN) and BNY (BK) have been selected to provide digital asset custody services for MSBT. BNY also serves as the administrator and transfer agent and will provide accounting, recordkeeping and cash management services.

“We are proud to introduce MSBT to the marketplace and believe this new ETP aligns with long-term trends in financial innovation and serves to strengthen the range of investments we provide investors,” said Ben Huneke, Head of Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “MSBT is an example of how leveraging Morgan Stanley’s collective strength and deep expertise across asset classes and market segments can add value for existing clients, unlock new investor opportunities and continue to pursue compelling and innovative investment ideas that solve investor challenges.”

COINBASE DOWNGRADE: Barclays downgraded Coinbase to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $140, down from $148, as part of a Q1 earnings preview. The company’s volumes weakened again in Q1, and without passage of the CLARITY act or a macro-driven recovery, this should continue into Q2, the analyst said. The firm’s adjusted EBITDA estimates for Coinbase are now 24% below the Street, primarily driven by lower spot trading, particularly retail trading revenues. Consensus estimates do not yet fully reflect available market data, Barclays contended. It expects the decline in volumes will weigh on Coinbase’s profitability and sees “little valuation support” for the shares.

Citizens lowered the firm’s price target on Coinbase to $355 from $400 and keept an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the capital markets and fintech group as part of a Q1 earnings preview. “Navigating volatility remains the central challenge across” the sector, the analyst said. The firm added capital markets conditions “were better in pockets than in breadth” with institutional trading the “clearest bright” spot in the quarter. Crypto sentiment “remains impaired” in the near term, but the market is too focused on the current slowdown in activity and not focused enough on the medium-term policy and business catalysts, contended the firm.

Citizens also lowered the firm’s price target on Robinhood to $155 from $180, on eToro (ETOR) to $85 from $90 and on Galaxy Digital (GLXY) to $55 from $60. The firm kept an Outperform rating on the shares.

Jefferies lowered the firm’s price target on Robinhood as well to $84 from $88 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. Investor engagement throughout Q1 showed some divergence across platforms and certain metrics like margin balances and securities lending have moderated along with crypto trading as volatility has climbed, the analyst said in a preview for the broker and wealth management group.

Jefferies also raised the firm’s price target on eToro to $51 from $48 and kept a Buy rating on the shares.

Barclays lowered the firm’s price target on Robinhood to $89 from $124 and kept an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the brokers, asset managers and exchanges group as part of a Q1 earnings preview. The analyst reduced realizations estimates again and expects messaging “to be a bit less constructive” this quarter. Barclays finds shares of the alternative asset managers attractive and thinks Q1 “could be a bit of a clearing event.”

Keefe Bruyette resumed coverage of Robinhood with a Market Perform rating and $75 price target. AI-driven concerns have hit the exchange and broker group to varying degrees and recent geopolitical events are adding pressure to the broker space but providing support for the exchanges, the analyst said. The firm believes the stocks are “near pivot points, presenting potentially interesting opportunities.” Among the sub-sectors, Keefe prefers wealth, exchanges, then e-brokerages.

Keefe Bruyette also resumed coverage of eToro with a Market Perform rating and $35 price target.

Additionally on Thursday, MarketVector Indexes announced the launch of the Coinbase Store of Value Index, developed in partnership with Coinbase Asset Management. COINSOV is a rules-based benchmark that combines Bitcoin and gold in a volatility-aware framework designed to help preserve purchasing power across market cycles. The index adjusts its allocation between Bitcoin and gold based on inverse volatility and rebalances quarterly, seeking to capture Bitcoin’s upside potential while maintaining a drawdown profile more comparable to gold.

CIRCLE DOWNGRADE: Compass Point downgraded Circle Internet (CRCL) to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $77, down from $79. While the USDC is more resilient this cycle, supply is shifting into lower margin areas, the analyst said. The firm added that Circle’s gross margins are contracting in the first half of the year.

On Wednesday, Circle announced the launch of Circle Payments Network Managed Payments. This fully managed, unified stablecoin settlement solution allows payment service providers, fintechs, banks, and global enterprises to access the speed and efficiency of regulated digital dollars without managing digital assets directly. CPN Managed Payments abstracts digital asset complexity, enabling partners to interact solely in fiat while Circle manages the entire digital asset lifecycle, including USDC minting and burning, payment orchestration, compliance controls, and blockchain infrastructure.

BTC DIGITAL, AURORA ENERGY ENTER DEVELOPMENT AGREEMENT: BTC Digital (BTCT) announced Minday that it has entered into a Joint Development and Operation Agreement with Aurora Energy to jointly develop an off-grid natural gas-powered computing infrastructure project in Alberta, Canada, and to further explore the integration of AI compute infrastructure with energy systems. In the first phase, the project is expected to develop a 5–10 MW natural gas-powered computing facility by utilizing locally stranded natural gas resources for on-site power generation, providing stable and cost-efficient electricity for high-performance computing equipment. The infrastructure is expected to support Bitcoin mining operations initially and may be further expanded to serve AI computing, data center computing, and other high-performance computing applications.

Siguang Peng, CEO, commented, “The AI era is reshaping the global computing industry. In the future, competition in computing infrastructure will not only depend on chips and algorithms, but also on access to energy and the strength of infrastructure deployment. Through this cooperation, we aim to build an energy-driven computing infrastructure platform that can support both digital asset computing and future AI computing demand, while creating a stronger foundation for the Company’s long-term development.”

OTHER CRYPTO NEWS:

• BitGo (BTGO) expands institutional access to Ethena’s USDe, powers AndX U.S. crypto trading platform launch
• BitFuFu (FUFU) produces 214 bitcoin in March
• Bitcoin Depot (BTM) discloses unauthorized transfer of 50.9 bitcoin
• Hyperscale Data (GPUS) sees Q1 revenue $43M-$45M vs. $25M last year
• Strategy (MSTR) acquires 4,871 bitcoin for $329.9M, price target lowered to $350 from $440 at TD Cowen
• Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) announces total crypto, cash holdings of $11.4B, uplists to NYSE, expands share repurchase program to $4B
• Cantor Fitzgerald lowers Mara Holdings (MARA) price target to $10 from $11, Riot Platforms (RIOT) to $20 from $29, Cipher Mining (CIFR) to $22 from $24, Galaxy Digital to $30 from $48, Hive Digital (HIVE) to $3 from $5, Iren (IREN) to $61 from $82, raises TeraWulf (WULF) price target to $30 from $24, Hut 8 (HUT) to $80 from $68, Core Scientific (CORZ) to $29 from $25
• Strive (ASST) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen
• Empery Digital (EMPD) sells 370 bitcoin for gross proceeds of $24.7M
• CME Group (CME) launches Avalanche and Sui futures
• CleanSpark (CLSK) reports 658 bitcoin produced in March, price target lowered to $14 from $17 at Cantor Fitzgerald
• Bit Digital (BTBT) reports 155,444 ETH holdings, price target lowered to $3.50 from $4 at Northland
• Solana Company (HSDT) assumed with a Buy at Maxim
• Nakamoto (NAKA) price target lowered to 75c from $1.50 at Maxim, initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen
• MicroCloud Hologram (HOLO) to invest $400M to upgrade Bitcoin protocol
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen
• Avax One (AVX) advances development of 10MW data center in Alberta, expands bitcoin mining capacity with ASIC acquisition
• Bullish (BLSH) reports March total trading volume $60.4B, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Rosenblatt

CRYPTO STOCK PLAYS: Publicly traded companies in the space include Bit Digital, Coinbase, Core Scientific, Greenidge Generation (GREE), Mara Holdings, Strategy, Riot Platforms and TeraWulf.

PRICE ACTION: As of time of writing, bitcoin rose roughly 9% this week to $72,760 in U.S. dollars, according to CoinDesk.