Commvault could draw $125-$130 in a potential deal, says Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer notes that according to Reuters, Commvault (CVLT) is exploring a potential sale following Thoma Bravo expressed interest. The firm sees a financial buyer as the more likely acquirer since the market is concentrated at the top, with the top six vendors making up close to 70% of the share. An acquisition bid by Rubrik (RBRK) would be a strategic mismatch, in Oppenheimer’s view, while Cohesity recently acquired Veritas and is in the middle of a tech integration. The firm believes Veeam could emerge as a potential bidder, given its designs on penetrating the large enterprise customer base. From a valuation perspective, Oppenheimer sees an acquisition price of at least 15 times EV/free cash flow as making sense, implying a share value of approximately $125-$130. The firm has an Outperform rating on Commvault with a price target of $150.