Cheesecake Factory sees FY26 revenue growth up 4%-5%

Consensus $3.99B. The company states: “Next, based on our estimates for net operating week growth and depending on the length of the current softer consumer environment, we are targeting total revenue growth of approximately 4% to 5% for 2026 over full year 2025, with sales trends expected to improve as the year progresses. We currently estimate total inflation across our commodity basket, labor, and other operating expenses to be in the low to mid-single digit range and fairly consistent across the quarters. We expect G&A, depreciation, and pre-opening expenses to remain essentially flat as a percent of sales compared to 2025. Based on these assumptions, we would expect full-year net income margin to be approximately 5% at the midpoint of the sales range provided. For modeling purposes, we are assuming a tax rate of approximately 12% and weighted average shares outstanding relatively flat to 2025. We would anticipate approximately $200 million to $210 million in cash CapEx to support unit development, as well as required maintenance on our restaurants. Note that the total CapEx estimated range assumes a similar mix of new restaurant openings by concept as 2025. In closing, we delivered another quarter of stable performance and strong profitability despite a more cautious consumer backdrop. Our operators executed at a high level, our portfolio of high-quality concepts remains well positioned, and our balance sheet and cash flow provide a solid foundation for growth. We remain confident in our ability to navigate the dynamic macro environment, as we have successfully done so in the past.” Comments taken from Q3 earnings conference call.