Charged: China mulls curbs on solar manufacturing equipment exports

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From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street’s newest darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) to the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.

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UPGRADED TO NEUTRAL: On April 14, UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded Tesla to Neutral from Sell with an unchanged price target of $352. The firm says current share levels more evenly balance Tesla’s near-term demand challenges and investment period with its long-term physical AI opportunity. The stock trades more on sentiment and momentum than fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes concerns over electric vehicle demand, a Q1 energy shortfall, higher costs, higher capital spending requirements, and slow progress of robo-taxi and Optimus have weighed on stock. However, the firm expects eventual progress on robo-taxi and Optimus and continues to view Tesla as a leader in physical AI.

TARGET CHANGES AHEAD OF RESULTS: Later in the week, Jefferies raised the firm’s price target on Tesla to $350 from $300 but kept a Hold rating on the shares ahead of Q1 results due on April 22. Q1 results “will show further widening of the gap between vision and execution” and ambitions to offer Robotaxi service across 25%-50% of potential U.S. markets by year-end “look beyond reach,” the firm tells investors. Barring a convincing announcement on robotaxi roll-out, the report “may fuel concern about funding and raise the logic of an eventual merger with SpaceX,” but Tesla “continues to deliver vision while facing slow moving competitors,” adds Jefferies, which cites higher mid-term growth for the firm’s higher price target.

Meanwhile, TD Cowen lowered the firm’s price target on Tesla to $490 from $519, keeping a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes automakers look better positioned than suppliers to offer investors outlook “reassurances and retaining guidance credibility.” TD sees low guide-down risk. For Tesla, the firm says the company’s Q1 delivery miss and a “seemingly quiet quarter” for Robotaxis has “dampened sentiment” into Q1. TD sees a slightly positive setup for the stock into the earnings print.

EXPORTS: China is considering restricting exports of advanced solar panel manufacturing equipment to the U.S., which could disrupt American clean energy investments and slow efforts to expand domestic solar production, Reuters reports. Given China’s dominant role in the supply chain, such a move may also impact major U.S. tech and energy initiatives tied to rising power demand from AI. Publicly traded companies in the space include Array Technologies (ARRY), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Emeren (SOL), Enphase Energy (ENPH), FTC Solar (FTCI), First Solar (FSLR), JinkoSolar (JKS), Maxeon Solar (MAXN), Shoals Technologies (SHLS), SolarEdge (SEDG), SunPower (SPWR) and Sunrun (RUN).

SELL SOLAREDGE: On April 14, Goldman Sachs downgraded SolarEdge (SEDG) to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $31, down from $36, as part of a broader research note previewing Q1 results in Solar. The firm is citing elevated expectations and challenging valuation for SolarEdge, especially when considering margin gains tied mostly to 45X credits. The stock’s recent rally also suggests expectations for potential upside from a material improvement in European demand, stemming from rising energy prices following the outbreak of war in Iran, appear to be creating a higher bar of expectations, Goldman added.