Cantor Fitzgerald says CMS guidance reinforces 2026 as ‘difficult for Medicaid’

Cantor Fitzgerald writes that today’s CMS Medicaid work requirement guidance reinforces the firm’s view of 2026 as a difficult year for Medicaid. CMS released additional guidance on how states can plan to implement Medicaid work requirements mandated via OBBB by 1/1/27, and while some elements of the guidance are what was expected other pieces – including that Payors cannot help determine if a Medicaid beneficiary is complying with work requirements – came as somewhat of a surprise, the analyst tells investors in a research note. CMS is also distributing $200M across the 50 states to help lighten the administrative load but this is not enough and leaves states with a hefty administrative burden to cover, the firm added. Publicly traded companies in the space include CVS Health (CVS), Centene (CNC), Cigna (CI), Elevance Health (ELV), Humana (HUM), Molina Healthcare (MOH) and UnitedHealth (UNH).