BP updates Q1 outlook to include Middle East conflict, crude volatility impacts

BP (BP) sees Q1 upstream production 2,344 mboepd. Sees Q1 capital expenditures approximately $3.5B. Sees Q1 underlying effective tax rate 35%. Sees Q1 net debt $25B-$27B. Gas and low carbon energy is expected to be slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Oil production and operations is expected to be slightly lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. The company said, “These estimates and expectations include impacts associated with the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the current market conditions resulting in heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas and refined products prices in the latter part of the first quarter. These market conditions are expected to impact financial results, including trading results and working capital movements, increase the dislocation between marker prices versus actual prices realized by bp in 1Q 2026, and increase the impact of price lagsa.”