Alcoa sees Middle East conflict having sequential unfavorable impact in Q2

Within the second quarter 2026 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential unfavorable impacts of approximately $15 million due to lower price and volumes from bauxite offtake agreements and higher energy prices, primarily diesel, due to the Middle East conflict. For the second quarter 2026 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, Alcoa (AA) expects sequential favorable impacts of approximately $55 million due to inventory repositioning actions taken in the first quarter 2026, higher shipments and product premiums, and lower production costs due to the completion of the San Ciprian smelter restart, partially offset by seasonally lower third-party energy sales. Based on recent higher LME and Midwest premium pricing and expected higher shipments, Section 232 tariff costs on U.S. imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $35 million sequentially. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by approximately $20 million sequentially. Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects second quarter 2026 operational tax expense to approximate $110 million to $120 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.