Alcoa backs FY25 Alumina segment production, shipments guidance

Alcoa (AA) expects 2025 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons, and between 13.1 and 13.3 million metric tons, respectively. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery in June 2024. Alcoa expects 2025 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons, and between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, respectively. Within the fourth quarter 2025 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential favorable impacts of approximately $80 million due to the absence of charges to increase asset retirement obligations, higher shipments, and lower maintenance costs. For the fourth quarter 2025, the Aluminum segment expects sequential unfavorable impacts of approximately $20 million due to restart inefficiencies at the San Ciprian smelter, and lower third-party energy sales, partially offset by higher shipments. Tariff costs on higher U.S. imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $50 million sequentially. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by approximately $45 million sequentially. Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects fourth quarter 2025 operational tax expense to approximate $40 million to $50 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.