Alaska Air sees Q1 EPS ($1.50) to (50c), consensus (70c)

The company states: “In the first three weeks of January, bookings have inflected positive relative to last year. We have seen several of the highest booking days in our history since January 1st with managed corporate revenues up 20% year-over-year for the first quarter. We expect first quarter unit revenues to be solidly positive and earnings per share to be approximately flat year-over-year which would mark another sequential improvement towards earnings expansion. Given the macroeconomic headwinds the industry experienced in 2025 and the positive emergent demand trends, our guidance for 2026 reflects a wide range of potential macroeconomic outcomes. We expect to continue to realize value from Alaska Accelerate initiatives and synergies from the Hawaiian integration, which remain on track or ahead of plan relative to our initial expectations. To hit the higher end of our guidance range we would require sustained macroeconomic recovery in 2026, at or improving on trends seen in the first three weeks of the year, and for fuel prices to stabilize. Given the inherent uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment, we remain as focused as ever on controlling what is within our control, including disciplined cost management, driving strong productivity and delivering on our initiatives.”