President Donald Trump’s new tariffs could cause a recession in the U.S. and hurt the global economy, according to Emily Bowersock Hill, CEO of Bowersock Capital Partners, which manages $850 million in assets. Hill said the bull market is now “dead,” blaming it on “ideologues and self-inflicted wounds.” She called the way the tariffs were calculated “alarmingly crude” and “so simplistic” that it raised doubts about whether those who created the plan had any real understanding of economics. The tariffs, which raise the average U.S. import rate from 2.5% to 24%, have rattled investors.
Unsurprisingly, China responded quickly with its own 34% tariffs on U.S. goods, and there are worries that other countries might soon follow, which would slow the world economy even more. Because of this, Hill’s firm lowered its year-end S&P 500 (SPX) forecast from 6,000 to 5,700. The S&P 500 is already down over 16% from its recent peak, and if it drops 20%, it will officially enter a bear market. On Friday, markets extended their slide.
Nevertheless, Hill urged investors not to panic but to stay diversified and be prepared for a long stretch of unpredictable markets. She said that Trump officials view this as a necessary “detox” period to fix big issues like the national debt, rising interest costs, and budget deficits. However, Hill said she’s not convinced this short-term pain will lead to any real long-term improvements.
Is SPY a Buy Right Now?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) based on 410 Buys, 86 Holds, and eight Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average SPY price target of $721.56 per share implies 40.2% upside potential.
