EV maker Tesla (TSLA) is starting to see more cautious expectations from analysts, especially when it comes to its EV sales outlook, which is causing shares to slide. On average, analysts now expect Tesla to deliver about 1.69 million vehicles this year, which is down from around 1.75 million estimated back in December. While this would still be slightly higher than the 1.64 million vehicles Tesla sold in 2025, the key point is that expectations are moving lower, not higher. So even though growth is still expected, it now looks like the recovery in demand may be slower than previously thought.
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Trade TSLA with leverageIt is worth noting that Tesla ended up missing estimates last quarter, which likely explains why analysts are being more cautious now. Because of that, even small changes in expectations matter more, as investors are starting to question how reliable these forecasts really are. Nevertheless, analysts expect Tesla to deliver about 365,645 vehicles in the first quarter, which would be roughly 8.6% higher than the same time last year.
However, that comparison needs context. Last year’s first quarter was unusually weak due to backlash related to Elon Musk’s involvement in President Donald Trump’s administration, along with production slowdowns from the Model Y refresh. Therefore, the year-over-year growth looks stronger than it might actually be, which again supports the idea that Tesla’s recovery is still uneven rather than fully back on track.
What Is the Prediction for TSLA Stock?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on TSLA stock based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and seven Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average TSLA price target of $399.33 per share implies 5.7% upside potential.
