Electric vehicle (EV) giant Tesla (TSLA) is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, April 22. TSLA stock is down 12% year-to-date but has rallied 74% over the past year. Wall Street is divided on Tesla stock. While bulls are optimistic about the company’s robotaxi business, full self-driving (FSD) tech, Optimus humanoid robot, and AI projects, other analysts are concerned about the persistent weakness in the company’s EV business amid intense competition and macro uncertainties.
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New trading tool for TSLA bearsRecently, Tesla stock jumped after CEO Elon Musk highlighted the company’s progress on its forthcoming AI5 chip.
Meanwhile, Wall Street expects Tesla to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36 for Q1 2026, reflecting 33% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to rise more than 15% to $22.27 billion from the prior-year quarter. As seen in the chart below, Tesla’s Q1 deliveries rose 6.3% year-over-year to 358,023 EVs, but missed expectations and declined 14% from the previous quarter.
Investors will look forward to management’s commentary on the EV demand backdrop, robotaxi expansion, and updates on Optimus and other AI projects.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Tesla’s Q1 Earnings
Ahead of Q1 2026 earnings, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla stock, but raised his price target to $350 from $300 to reflect higher medium-term growth. Houchois expects Tesla to report a Q1 2026 core auto gross margin of 15.5%, down from 17.2% in Q4 2025. He projects a 10% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 revenue to $21.2 billion but a 15% sequential decline based on the first-quarter deliveries and a weak end to discontinued S and X models.
Houchois expects Q1 results to show a growing gap between the company’s vision and execution. He added that without a strong update on the robotaxi rollout, concerns about funding could rise and even spark talk of an eventual merger with SpaceX. Houchois also noted concerns about aggressive capital spending plans that could result in losses in the near term.
Last week, UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded Tesla stock to Hold from Sell with a price target of $352. Despite ongoing challenges, Spak expects Tesla to eventually make progress on robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot. He continues to view the company as a leader in physical AI.
However, Spak remains on the sidelines due to near-term demand challenges, an elevated investment period, and TSLA stock’s “lofty” valuation. The analyst cautioned investors about continued volatility in Tesla stock, noting that it “trades more on sentiment, narrative, and momentum than fundamentals.”
AI Analyst Is Cautious on Tesla Stock
Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has a Neutral rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $382, indicating 2.7% downside risk. The AI Analyst’s rating considers Tesla’s solid balance sheet and cash flows, partially offset by weaker growth and profitability as well as bearish technicals. While the earnings call highlighted some positives, such as margin improvement and progress in energy, FSD, and autonomy, near-term EV delivery softness and more than $20 billion in capital spending are concerning.
Is TSLA Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Heading into Q1 earnings, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Tesla stock based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and six Sells. The average TSLA stock price target of $403.13 indicates a modest upside of about 3%.
