Tesla (TSLA), the electric vehicle giant, is heading into its Q1 FY26 earnings report under pressure. The stock recently hit a new 2026 low of $337.25 and is now down about 23% year-to-date. With shares near yearly lows, the April 22 earnings report could help determine whether the recent weakness is temporary or signals deeper challenges for the business.
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Weak Deliveries and Rising Inventory Keep Analysts Cautious
The biggest issue right now is the gap between production and demand. Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, missing estimates of around 366,000. At the same time, the company produced roughly 50,000 more vehicles than it sold, pointing to a sharp rise in inventory.
This imbalance has raised concerns that Tesla may need to cut prices further to clear stock, which could put pressure on margins. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman has already warned that aggressive discounting could lead to a sharp drop in auto profits. He maintained a Sell rating on TSLA stock with a $145 price target, which is 58% below where the shares currently trade.
Meanwhile, Truist Securities analyst William Stein lowered his price target to $400 and noted that both deliveries and energy storage came in below expectations. He also flagged rising competition and lower incentives as key risks.
AI Push and New Bets Keep Bulls Interested
While the core auto business is under pressure, Tesla continues to invest heavily in future growth areas.
The company is pushing ahead with its Cybercab robotaxi plans and Optimus humanoid robots. It is also working on advanced chips, including the Vera Rubin platform, to support its AI ambitions. Reports suggest Intel (INTC) may play a role in building chips for Tesla’s broader AI efforts.
Tesla’s Energy business is another bright spot, with revenue in the segment growing about 25% year-over-year.
Wedbush’s five-star-rated analyst Dan Ives remains one of the most bullish voices on the stock, with a Street-high price target of $600, indicating over 60% upside from current levels. He believes investors are still underestimating Tesla’s shift toward AI and automation.
What to Watch in the Earnings Report
The April 22 earnings report will be key for investors. Wall Street expects Tesla to report a 48% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.39. Revenue is forecast to reach $22.69 billion, up 17% from the year-ago quarter.
The focus will be on whether Tesla can reduce its inventory levels and stabilize margins. Updates on demand trends and pricing will also be closely watched. At the same time, investors will look for more clarity on the timeline for robotaxis, AI chips, and other long-term projects.
Is Tesla a Good Stock to Buy?
Wall Street analysts remain split on Tesla stock. According to TipRanks, TSLA stock has received a Hold consensus rating, with 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and eight Sells assigned in the last three months. The average Tesla price target of $393.97 implies 13.65% upside potential from current levels.
