Tesla (TSLA), the electric vehicle and AI company led by Elon Musk, just received two dramatically different calls from Wall Street. Piper Sandler sees Tesla stock climbing to $500, while JPMorgan (JPM) believes it could fall to $145, a huge $355 gap between the two targets. With Tesla stock recently trading around $445, Piper Sandler’s target implies roughly 12% upside, while JPMorgan’s forecast points to nearly 67% downside.
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New trading tool for TSLA bearsThe difference between the two targets reflects growing debate over Tesla’s AI and robotics future as EV growth slows and competition rises.
Piper Sandler Says Tesla Investors Get Optimus “for Free”
Top Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter reiterated an Overweight rating on Tesla stock with a $500 price target. In a newly updated version of his “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” Potter argued that Tesla should no longer be viewed only as an EV maker. The analyst valued 17 different Tesla business lines, including autonomous driving, energy storage, charging infrastructure, and software.
According to Potter, those businesses alone are worth about $400 per share.
The report’s biggest highlight was Optimus, Tesla’s upcoming humanoid robot. Piper Sandler said investors buying Tesla at current levels are effectively getting the robotics business “for free.”
The firm believes Tesla’s long-term opportunity in robotics and AI could eventually become larger than its vehicle business.
JPMorgan Focuses on EV Weakness and Valuation Risks
On the other hand, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta recently assumed coverage on Tesla stock with an Underweight (equivalent to Sell) rating and a $145 price target. The bearish view centers on Tesla’s current vehicle business rather than its future AI ambitions. JPMorgan pointed to slowing EV demand, rising competition, and weaker trends in key markets like China.
Recent reports have also shown Tesla deliveries in China facing pressure, while aggressive pricing actions continue to weigh on profit margins.
JPMorgan believes Tesla stock still trades at levels more commonly associated with high-growth AI companies despite most of the company’s revenue continuing to come from vehicle sales.
Is Tesla a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Turning to Wall Street, Tesla stock currently carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 13 Buys, 12 Holds, and five Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Analysts remain divided as some continue betting on Tesla’s long-term AI and robotics opportunity, while others remain cautious about slowing EV growth and valuation concerns.
After a 39.77% rally in its share price over the past year, the average TSLA price target of $410.21 per share implies 7.82% downside risk.
