Target, Walmart, or Lowe’s: Options Market Signals Which Retailer Will Move Most after Earnings This Week

Retail earnings season is here, and options markets are already signaling which stocks could see the biggest swings. Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT), and Lowe’s (LOW) all report this week, but traders are pricing in very different levels of volatility. Based on options pricing, Target is expected to move the most, followed by Lowe’s, while Walmart is set for the smallest reaction.

Target (TGT): Expected move ±8.87% after earnings on May 20

Options traders are bracing for a big move in Target stock. A near 9% implied swing shows investors expect meaningful updates on store traffic, margins, or the company’s turnaround plan. Target has been more volatile than other big-box names. In the Q1 earnings release, investors will also be watching whether consumers are still pulling back on high-margin discretionary goods in favor of value and everyday essentials.

Ahead of the Q1 results, Telsey’s Joseph Feldman raised his price target on Target stock to $148 from $145 and kept a Buy rating. He said early wins from Target’s turnaround plan led him to lift his first-quarter EPS view to $1.43 from $1.30. He still thinks that macro risks and new investments weigh on the outlook.

Currently, Wall Street analysts expect earnings of $1.47 per share for the quarter, compared with $1.30 in the year-ago quarter. Meanwhile, TGT’s Q1 revenue is expected to rise slightly to $24.66 billion, from $23.85 billion a year ago.

Walmart (WMT): Expected Move ±2.71% after earnings on May 21

Walmart is the calmest of the three. A 2.7% implied move shows its record for steady results and a predictable outlook. As the largest U.S. retailer, Walmart rarely posts dramatic earnings surprises, and traders expect another steady quarter. Investors are watching for updates on U.S. same-store sales and profits from newer areas such as digital ads. Also, they will closely look at what management says about the outlook as inflation, fuel costs, and weak consumer confidence weigh on shoppers.

UBS analyst Michael Lasser kept his Buy rating on WMT stock and kept a $147 price target. He said Walmart should hit the key numbers the market wants, with about 4.5% U.S. comps driven by strong e-commerce and softer health and wellness trends. Further, the analyst added that the pharmacy slowdown may weigh on results, but U.S. profits should still land at the high end of Walmart’s 6-8% growth range.

Overall, analysts expect the company to post earnings of $0.66 per share, up by more than 8% year-over-year. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to be around $174.84 billion, marking a growth of about 6% year-over-year.

Lowe’s (LOW): Expected Move ±7.66% after earnings on May 20

Lowe’s also shows a big expected move. A 7.7% implied swing shows traders think Lowe’s Q1 results and its outlook could be a key driver. Investors are mainly watching whether growth in Pro‑contractor sales and spring demand can make up for weak DIY spending.

Stifel’s W. Andrew Carter cut his price target on LOW stock to $220 from $270 and kept a Hold rating. He said near-term sales look soft, with weaker comps and tougher trends in drywall and new home builds. Carter also expects margins to stay under pressure as Lowe’s and Home Depot (HD) keep spending to drive long‑term growth in a volatile market.

Wall Street analysts expect LOW to report Q1 earnings of $2.97 per share for the quarter, compared with $2.92 in the year-ago quarter. Also, the company’s Q1 revenue is expected to jump 10% to $22.98 billion.

Which Is a Better Stock, Target, Walmart, or Lowe’s?

Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool, we compared TGT, WMT, and LOW to see which retail stock Wall Street currently favors. WMT stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating, while both TGT and LOW carry a Moderate Buy consensus rating.

Analysts see more upside potential in Lowe’s, with an average price target of $283.52, implying about 30.04% upside from current levels.