Big-box retailer Target (TGT) is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, May 20. TGT stock has risen more than 30% year-to-date, reflecting investor optimism about the company’s turnaround under the leadership of Michael Fiddelke. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 7.83% move in either direction in Target stock in reaction to Q1 FY26 earnings. This implied move is higher than TGT stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 5.26% over the past four quarters.
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Wall Street expects Target to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47, reflecting 13.1% year-over-year growth. Net sales are expected to rise 3.5% to $24.66 billion.
Investors will look forward to management’s commentary on the progress of Target’s strategic initiatives, including remodeling of stores, and the demand backdrop.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Target’s Q1 Earnings
Heading into Q1 FY26 earnings, Telsey analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated a Buy rating on Target stock and raised his price target to $148 from $145. The 4-star analyst increased his Q1 and Q2 2026 estimates to reflect early execution gains from the company’s transformation initiatives, including enhancing the customer experience and leveraging technology and AI across operations. For Q1 FY26, Feldman raised his EPS estimate to $1.43 from $1.30 and comparable sales growth projection to 1.5% from 0.5%.
Feldman noted that during the Q4 FY25 earnings call, management highlighted that February trends were healthy and positive. Furthermore, the Placer.ai traffic data shows that March and April stayed in a “healthy positive range.” Also, Feldman’s own channel checks reflect improved product availability and better merchandise presentation. However, the analyst expects these positives to be partially offset by macro uncertainty, especially the U.S.-Iran conflict, and early investments in turnaround efforts.
Likewise, UBS analyst Michael Lasser reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $144. The 5-star analyst noted that Target’s recovery is showing encouraging signs in 2026 following challenges in recent years. He highlighted that several pressures faced in 2025, including the impact of boycotts, tariff costs, and heavy markdown activity, are easing and creating a cleaner setup for 2026. Lasser noted the year-to-date rise in TGT stock and expects further upside, given that the turnaround has just started.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers increased his price target for TGT stock to $129 from $120, while reiterating a Hold rating. The 5-star analyst adjusted his price targets for retail stocks ahead of their Q1 earnings. He noted that the positive impact from tax stimulus more than offset the headwind from higher energy prices. That said, Horvers expects minimal guidance revisions, as the major retail seasons – back-to-school and the holiday season – are still ahead amid a highly uncertain backdrop.
AI Analyst Is Cautious on Target Stock
Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has a Neutral rating on TGT stock with a price target of $127, indicating shares are fully priced at current levels. The AI Analyst’s rating reflects attractive valuation, strong dividend yield, and a moderately positive technical backdrop, offset by muted growth, still-elevated leverage, and weakening cash flow trends. Despite improving early sales signals, the AI Analyst’s cautious stance reflects execution risk and tariff uncertainty.
Is TGT a Good Stock to Buy?
Ahead of Q1 earnings, Target stock earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 11 Buys, 12 Holds, and two Sells. The average TGT stock price target of $130.71 indicates 2.7% upside potential from current levels.
