The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading higher on Friday, despite the University of Michigan’s preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment falling to an all-time low. The index tallied at 47.6 in April, down from 53.3 in March and missing the consensus estimate of 51.5. However, 98% of the responses were collected before the U.S. announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade QQQ“Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
Short-Term Inflation Expectations Post Largest Monthly Rise Since April 2025
The U.S.-Iran war has also hampered perceptions surrounding business conditions and personal finances across all demographic groups.
Meanwhile, inflation expectations surged higher amid rising oil and gas prices from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Consumers now expect year-ahead inflation of 4.8%, up from 3.8%, marking the largest monthly jump since April 2025. They also expect long-term inflation of 3.4%, the highest since November 2025.