S&P 500 Climbs as Retail Sales Growth Hits 10-Month High

The S&P 500 (SPX) opened Tuesday in positive territory following the latest retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in February, above the estimate of 0.5% and improving from a drop of 0.2% in January. It also marked the highest rate of growth since June 2025. Core retail sales, which exclude categories like autos and gas, rose 0.5%, topping the estimate of 0.3% and rising from 0% in the prior month.

Gas Spike Tests Consumer Spending

The data predates the U.S.-Iran war, which started on February 28. Since then, gas prices have increased by 36% to $4.06 a gallon, while Brent crude oil futures (BZ) have surged by the same amount. That could pressure consumer spending, as a larger allocation of household budgets is spent on transportation costs.

“While household consumption remains the primary driver of US economic growth, the ongoing Middle East conflict and resulting surge in oil prices are testing its resilience,” wrote Moody’s analysts in a note.

Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP), meaning that any decline could slow overall economic growth significantly.