Solana (SOL-USD) is flashing a rare signal that ethereum-and-solana-surges">could lead to a massive recovery. Even though the price has crashed 71% from its record high in 2025, a new report from Fidelity Digital Assets shows that the most painful part of the drop might be over. Investors are now sitting on heavy losses, which historically happens right before a giant move higher.
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Fidelity Maps Out a 516% Recovery Roadmap
The latest data shows that the “Net Unrealized Profit/Loss” (NUPL) for the network has dropped to -0.67. This level puts the coin deep into the capitulation zone, where many investors finally give up and sell. According to the report, every time the network reaches this specific level, the median return over the next year is a massive 516%. While the price dropped 33% earlier this year, Fidelity notes that these extreme low points often mark a bottom for the market.
Historical Limits Create a Big ‘But?’
Fidelity warned that while the 516% signal is exciting, there is one major catch. Because Solana is a relatively young project, the firm only has 10 data points to look at from the past. This small sample size means the pattern might not repeat this time. The correlation between this specific signal and future prices is currently very low, meaning investors should be careful about betting everything on a single chart. The firm made it clear that “the historical relationship… may not persist.”
Solana’s Network Usage Fuels a Mainstream Shift
While the price of the coin is struggling, the actual use of Solana’s network is exploding.
Monthly active addresses jumped by 50% in the first part of 2026, and new addresses rose by 35%. This shows that people are using the system for more than just gambling on meme coins. Stablecoin activity reached an average of $7.2 billion per day, suggesting that the network is becoming a real tool for global finance.
Fidelity believes this move toward “sustainable financial activity” could protect the network even if price volatility stays high.
At the time of writing, Solana’s price is sitting at around $85.
