SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) is on fire again, with the stock surging about 12% today, adding to what has already been an extraordinary run that has seen shares rise more than 2,700% over the past year. The latest move appears to be driven by its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, alongside continued optimism around AI memory demand and improving NAND pricing trends, both of which continue to support the stock’s momentum.
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Trade SNDK with leverageYet, one big question remains – how much upside is really left as the company prepares to report Q1 earnings on April 30. The setup is not entirely straightforward, especially considering how several semiconductor names have delivered strong quarterly results in recent months, only to see muted or negative stock reactions as elevated valuations leave little room for disappointment.
Against that backdrop, Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis, who ranks among the top 1% on Wall Street, remains constructive on the outlook. A key part of his thesis revolves around ongoing long-term agreement negotiations, often referred to as LTAs, which are multi-year supply contracts between memory producers and large customers such as hyperscale data center operators.
Curtis believes that progress on these LTAs, combined with sustained demand from AI infrastructure buildouts, should support further increases in NAND pricing. If that trend holds, it could translate into upward revisions for SNDK heading into the print.
Curtis has now increased his 1Q/2Q26 ASP growth forecasts to +70%/+35%, up from the previous +60%/+10%, with additional upside potential as TrendForce indicates +85%/+70% even at the low end.
The 5-star analyst thinks concerns about a modest decline in spot pricing momentum are “overblown” and stresses that spot accounts for only a small, consumer-leaning portion of the NAND market, despite recent DRAMeXchange data showing TLC spot pricing down 5% month-over-month and QLC down 4%. Spot exposure “remains limited,” while the broader memory outlook still looks bullish to Curtis, supported by strong demand, particularly in AI data centers.
In fact, Curtis notes that Kioxia is reportedly negotiating long-term contracts with hyperscale customers extending through 2029. Data center bit demand is anticipated to exceed 50% of the total market for the first time in calendar 2026 and continue expanding, driven by both general-purpose CPUs and AI accelerators.
Curtis is focused on supply dynamics, with several large-cap competitors prioritizing conversions over new greenfield capacity, which is more likely to emerge in the second half of 2028. The analyst thinks the industry is likely to become more open to discussing incremental capacity additions once LTAs are in place, a development that appears imminent for SNDK. Similar to trends seen in the optics industry, Curtis thinks it is “reasonable to believe” that some customers might be willing to support capacity expansion in exchange for assured priority access to supply.
He also expects SNDK to begin shipping QLC eSSDs to two Tier 1 customers over the coming quarters, supporting share gains in its Data Center business.
To this end, Curtis assigns a Buy rating on SNDK shares and raised his price target from $700 to $1,000, suggesting the stock will gain another 5% over the coming months, although that target could move higher if earnings estimates are revised upward as expected. (To watch Curtis’s track record, click here)
More broadly, the rest of the Street remains firmly bullish on Sandisk, with a Strong Buy consensus rating. Yet, despite that optimism, the average price target still sits below the current share price, leaving investors to weigh whether further upside will depend on another round of estimate revisions or whether much of the good news is already reflected in the stock. (See SNDK stock forecast)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.