Rocket Lab (RKLB) is set to report its first-quarter results on Thursday, May 7, after the market closes. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect a 13.88% move in either direction in RKLB stock in reaction to Q1 2026 earnings. This implied move is much higher than Rocket Lab’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 4.65% over the past four quarters.
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For context, Rocket Lab is a space launch company specializing in small orbital rockets and satellite solutions, best known for its Electron rocket and upcoming Neutron launch vehicle.
What to Expect from Rocket Lab’s Q1 Results
Wall Street expects a Q1 2026 loss of $0.07 per share, down from a loss of $0.12 a year ago. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to grow more than 50% year-over-year to $189.65 million.
For Rocket Lab, the headline numbers may matter less this quarter. Instead, investors are likely to focus on updates around its Neutron rocket program. Management commentary and any tangible signs of progress will be key. Notably, Neutron is a 43-meter, partially reusable rocket designed for satellite launches and cargo missions, and is seen as a major growth driver. It is expected to launch in late 2026 or early 2027, which could position Rocket Lab as a direct competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, potentially opening the door to higher margins and stronger long-term growth.
At the same time, margins will be a key focus. Rocket Lab has made progress toward breakeven, but it still needs steady improvement. In 2025, GAAP gross margin was at 34.4%. The company also ended Q4 2025 with a record $1.85 billion backlog. Heading into its upcoming earnings, investors will watch for signs of conversion and continued growth. Below is a screenshot of Rocket Lab’s backlog growth over the last few quarters.
Is RKLB a Good Stock to Buy?
The key question now is whether Rocket Lab still has room to run—or if the market has already priced in its future growth. Despite sector volatility and high valuation, RKLB stock could still have upside if execution stays strong and key catalysts—like the Neutron launch and new contract wins—come through.
According to TipRanks, RKLB stock has received a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with nine Buys and four Holds assigned in the last three months. The average price target for Rocket Lab is $89.0, suggesting an upside of 10.82% from the current level.
