Waste Management: Structural Moats, Accelerating Free Cash Flow, and Room for Multiple Expansion Support Buy Rating

In a report released today, Connor Cerniglia from Bernstein maintained a Buy rating on Waste Management, with a price target of $260.00.

Connor Cerniglia has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Waste Management’s structural advantages and earnings outlook. He highlights the company’s dominant landfill portfolio in an industry where permits are difficult to obtain and capacity is tightening, supporting steady pricing power and durable low‑ to mid‑single‑digit revenue growth over time.

He also expects a sharp acceleration in free cash flow as elevated sustainability capital spending tapers off while renewable energy and recycling investments scale, boosting margins and EBITDA growth. Despite some integration and project execution risk, particularly around Stericycle and RNG assets, he believes the current valuation already discounts these issues, leaving room for multiple expansion and justifying an Outperform rating with a $260 target price.

Cerniglia covers the Industrials sector, focusing on stocks such as Waste Connections, Waste Management, and Republic Services. According to TipRanks, Cerniglia has an average return of -2.3% and a 21.43% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released yesterday, Wells Fargo also assigned a Buy rating to the stock with a $273.00 price target.