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Ulta Beauty: Hold Rating Amid Mixed Demand Trends and Valuation Concerns

Ulta Beauty: Hold Rating Amid Mixed Demand Trends and Valuation Concerns

William Blair analyst Dylan Carden has maintained their neutral stance on ULTA stock, giving a Hold rating on November 17.

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Dylan Carden has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors influencing Ulta Beauty’s current market position. The company’s intraquarter data indicates a slowdown in demand during the third quarter, with mixed trends observed in October and a continuation of softer trends into November. This suggests a less favorable setup compared to the previous quarter, which had benefited from specific promotional activities.
Furthermore, while the online channel continues to outperform, likely due to enhancements in the digital customer experience, this shift may lead to retail fixed-cost deleverage. With Ulta shares valued at 19.5 times the 2026 EPS estimate and a projected 3% comp with a 12.1% operating margin, the valuation appears relatively full. The potential risk of online sales cannibalizing the retail channel could maintain or lower total company margins, despite the company’s investments and industry trends. These factors contribute to the Hold rating as they suggest limited upside potential in the near term.

In another report released on November 17, Citi also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $550.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 25 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of ULTA in relation to earlier this year.

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