TRP: Solid Q4 Beat but Slower Project Sanctions Keep Rating at Hold

In a report released today, Lloyd Byrne from Jefferies maintained a Hold rating on TC Energy, with a price target of C$80.00.

Lloyd Byrne has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors, including a modest earnings outperformance and a slower pace of project approvals than anticipated. TRP’s fourth-quarter EBITDA exceeded consensus by about 2%, showing solid operational performance, yet the company only advanced roughly C$0.6 billion of new sanctioned projects in the period, which was weaker than expected.

At the same time, management emphasized an expanded pipeline of de-risked opportunities, adding about C$2 billion of near-term projects within a sizable C$20 billion origination backlog. This backlog, along with new open seasons, supports the prospect of stronger project activity and growth into 2026, but the current visibility and execution timing are not robust enough to justify a more constructive rating than Hold at this stage.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 141 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is neutral on the stock.