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TransMedics Group: Sustained Procedure Volumes and Margin Upside Support Buy Rating

TransMedics Group: Sustained Procedure Volumes and Margin Upside Support Buy Rating

William Blair analyst Ryan Daniels has maintained their bullish stance on TMDX stock, giving a Buy rating on December 31.

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Ryan Daniels has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors related to TransMedics Group’s recent performance and operational momentum. He expects fourth-quarter revenue to closely match market expectations, supported by his analysis of industry data, company-specific indicators, and organ transplant activity trends, all of which point to solid top-line results. His work with flight volume data—used as a proxy for transplant procedure activity—suggests that overall utilization of TransMedics’ platform remained strong through the quarter, with particularly robust activity in the final week of December. This steady operational throughput underpins confidence that the company is executing well and sustaining demand for its technology.
In addition to revenue visibility, Daniels sees greater potential upside in operating margins, implying that TransMedics may be able to translate its stable growth into improved profitability. The relatively consistent monthly flight volumes in the fourth quarter, with only minor fluctuations between October and December, reinforce the view that the business has durable and recurring procedure volume rather than transient spikes. By combining his quantitative diligence on flight data with observed transplant trends, Daniels concludes that both the company’s growth trajectory and its margin profile are attractive at current levels. Taken together, these elements support his decision to recommend the stock with a Buy rating.

In another report released on December 31, Piper Sandler also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $140.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 32 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of TMDX in relation to earlier this year.

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