Summit Therapeutics’ Ivonescimab: A Promising Competitor to Keytruda with Increased Approval Probability and Price Target

H.C. Wainwright analyst Mitchell Kapoor maintained a Buy rating on Summit Therapeutics today and set a price target of $50.00.

Mitchell Kapoor has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that highlight the promising potential of Summit Therapeutics’ ivonescimab. The recent overall survival (OS) win in China for EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a critical validation of the drug’s efficacy, proving that the progression-free survival (PFS) benefits translate into OS improvements. This success positions ivonescimab as a formidable competitor against Keytruda, which failed to show similar OS benefits in its trials.
Kapoor’s confidence is further bolstered by the comparability of the HARMONi trial results between Chinese and ex-China patients, suggesting that the OS data will achieve statistical significance as it matures. The market’s previous overreactions to interim OS analyses, which lacked maturity, are now being corrected with this new data. Kapoor has increased the probability of approval in NSCLC to 85% and raised the 12-month price target for Summit Therapeutics to $50, reflecting the strong potential for ivonescimab to surpass Keytruda’s commercial success.