Sol-Gel Technologies: Upside-Driven Buy on SGT-610’s Orphan Gorlin Syndrome Opportunity and Repriced Peak Sales Potential

In a report released today, Ram Selvaraju from H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating on Sol-Gel Technologies, with a price target of $110.00.

Ram Selvaraju has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied primarily to the value potential of SGT-610 in Gorlin syndrome. He views SGT-610, a topical hedgehog pathway inhibitor, as the key asset, with pivotal Phase 3 data expected in late 2026 and a projected FDA submission in the first half of 2027, supporting a potential U.S. launch in early 2028 if results are favorable. Selvaraju believes SGT-610 could become the first approved therapy specifically aimed at preventing new basal cell carcinoma lesions in this orphan indication, which materially enhances its commercial appeal. He also highlights that Sol-Gel can likely self-commercialize SGT-610 given the relatively concentrated and manageable patient population, improving the potential profitability of the opportunity.
Moreover, Selvaraju has significantly increased his peak sales assumptions for SGT-610 to roughly $640 million by the mid-2030s, driven largely by higher expected per-patient pricing that still appears reasonable relative to other high-cost rare dermatology treatments. He assumes eventual penetration of just over 2,100 treated patients in Gorlin syndrome, a figure he suggests may be conservative, and notes that his model excludes upside from potential expansion into high-frequency basal cell carcinoma and from ex-U.S. markets. Using a discounted cash flow framework, he assigns roughly $400 million in value to SGT-610 alone, based on a 40% probability of approval, yielding a total firm valuation of about $450 million and supporting a raised 12‑month price target of $110 per share. Although he acknowledges clinical, regulatory, pipeline, and dilution risks, Selvaraju concludes that the risk‑reward profile remains attractive, underpinning his Buy recommendation.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 8 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is positive on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders buying their shares of SLGL in relation to earlier this year.