Sigma Lithium: Buy Rating Backed by Operational Restart Progress, Tailings Monetization, and Stronger Lithium Pricing

Joel Jackson, an analyst from BMO Capital, maintained the Buy rating on Sigma Lithium. The associated price target was raised to $18.00.

Joel Jackson has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that together improve Sigma Lithium’s risk‑reward profile. He highlights that mine remobilization is progressing and is expected to be completed by the end of January, with stable production anticipated later in the first quarter, supporting a visible path back to normalized operations. He also notes that the company successfully monetized 100kt of tailings for about $11 million, demonstrating the economic potential of the remaining tailings inventory even after factoring in freight costs. In addition, Sigma has started to receive prepayment funds under its offtake arrangements, which helps bridge near‑term liquidity needs and alleviates concerns about balance‑sheet stress.

Joel bases his target price on a net asset value framework that assumes mid‑cycle spodumene concentrate prices around $1,300/t, while recognizing that current spot prices are materially higher, which would imply additional upside to valuation if sustained. His updated target price of US$18 (about 1.2x his 10% NAV estimate of roughly US$15.50 per share) reflects both the improved pricing environment for lithium and the nearing completion of the operational restart. Although he acknowledges some operational uncertainty during the ramp‑up and a somewhat opaque transition at the mine, he believes the combination of stronger lithium markets, progress on production recovery, tailings monetization, and prepayment inflows supports a constructive outlook on the stock. Consequently, these elements collectively justify his Buy recommendation on Sigma Lithium.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 33 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is neutral on the stock.