Shopify: Early Move Into AI-Driven ‘Agentic Commerce’ Supports Buy Rating and Attractive Risk/Reward

J.P. Morgan analyst Reginald Smith has maintained their bullish stance on SHOP stock, giving a Buy rating today.

Reginald Smith has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Shopify’s strategic integration with leading AI platforms. He highlights that Shopify merchants will soon be able to sell their products directly through major AI chatbots such as ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Microsoft Copilot, expanding merchants’ reach into new, high-engagement digital channels. This initiative follows Shopify’s previously announced partnership with OpenAI and reflects management’s focus on positioning the platform at the forefront of emerging “agentic commerce” trends. Smith also notes that while OpenAI will charge a 4% fee on transactions completed via ChatGPT’s checkout, this fee is comparable to standard e-commerce affiliate commissions and is borne by merchants rather than Shopify.

Furthermore, he emphasizes that these AI-enabled sales channels are structured so that Shopify’s existing payment margins should not be diluted, as OpenAI’s fee is separate from Shopify’s payment economics. Products will be automatically surfaced in AI chatbots that do not charge extra fees, potentially driving incremental volume without adding cost pressure for merchants on those platforms. Smith points out that near-term reported revenue and cost of goods sold are unlikely to show a large impact from this arrangement, but he views the rollout as an important step in building future growth optionality. In his view, Shopify’s early move into AI-driven commerce, combined with preserved unit economics and expanded merchant distribution, supports a favorable risk/reward profile that underpins his Buy recommendation on the stock.

In another report released today, TipRanks – OpenAI also reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a C$227.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 226 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of SHOP in relation to earlier this year.