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Santander: Strong Strategic Upside but Full Valuation Keeps Rating at Hold

Santander: Strong Strategic Upside but Full Valuation Keeps Rating at Hold

In a report released yesterday, Antonio Reale from Bank of America Securities maintained a Hold rating on Banco Santander, with a price target of €11.00.

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Antonio Reale has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that balance Santander’s improved outlook with a fairly full valuation. The bank’s new strategic plan points to net profit above €20bn by 2028, double‑digit EPS growth and a return on tangible equity exceeding 20%, supported by higher cash dividends and continued buybacks, which together should drive strong growth in tangible book value plus dividends.

At the same time, much of this upside is partly reflected in the share price, with the stock already near the analyst’s price objective and consensus estimates moving higher into the event. Execution risks around delivering mid‑single‑digit annual revenue growth, achieving a cost/income ratio near 36% and maintaining a stable cost of risk, particularly in Brazil and the U.S., temper the risk‑reward. As a result, Reale views the shares as fairly valued, justifying a Hold stance rather than a more positive recommendation.

In another report released yesterday, Morgan Stanley also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a €11.50 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 55 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of BNC in relation to earlier this year.

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