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Regulatory Uncertainty Around Plains NGL Deal Keeps Keyera at Hold With Unchanged DCF-Based Target Price

Regulatory Uncertainty Around Plains NGL Deal Keeps Keyera at Hold With Unchanged DCF-Based Target Price

In a report released yesterday, Nate Heywood from ATB Cormark Capital Markets maintained a Hold rating on Keyera Corp., with a price target of C$52.00.

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Nate Heywood has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied mainly to regulatory uncertainty around Keyera’s planned acquisition of Plains’ NGL assets. The Competition Bureau’s challenge introduces meaningful execution risk to what had been viewed as a highly accretive, strategically attractive transaction that would significantly enhance Keyera’s Fort Saskatchewan presence and integrated NGL platform.

At the same time, he notes that the company’s fundamental valuation remains relatively in line with peers, even after the share price pullback reflecting this new overhang. With no changes to his forecasts or discounted cash flow–derived target price, he views the risk/reward as balanced for now, warranting a Hold stance until there is clearer visibility on the outcome of the regulatory process and any potential asset divestitures or negotiated remedies.

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