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Promising Outlook for First Watch Restaurant Group: Buy Rating Justified Despite Short-term EBITDA Concerns

Promising Outlook for First Watch Restaurant Group: Buy Rating Justified Despite Short-term EBITDA Concerns

TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles has maintained their bullish stance on FWRG stock, giving a Buy rating on July 18.

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Andrew Charles has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that indicate a promising outlook for First Watch Restaurant Group. Despite some anticipated downside in the second quarter’s adjusted EBITDA and potential risks to the 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance, these are not expected to significantly impact consensus views. The data from Bloomberg Second Measure suggests an improvement in same-store sales, which is seen as a positive indicator that could counterbalance any concerns about margins.
Furthermore, the company’s sales performance is bolstered by favorable trends in the full-service industry, robust alternative data, and an intensified marketing effort. The easing of year-over-year comparisons in third-party delivery also supports this positive outlook. There is potential for upward revisions in future same-store sales estimates, with the third quarter expected to show strong results. Overall, First Watch is perceived as a high-quality growth concept that is currently undervalued, justifying the Buy rating.

In another report released on July 18, Bank of America Securities also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $21.00 price target.

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