Pemvidutide’s Strong Phase 2b Data and De-Risked Phase 3 Path in MASH Support Altimmune Buy Rating and $12 Target

Analyst Patrick Trucchio of H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating on Altimmune, retaining the price target of $12.00.

Patrick Trucchio has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors centered on pemvidutide’s strong clinical profile and clearer path to approval in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). He highlights that 48-week Phase 2b data show meaningful and statistically significant improvements in non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis and inflammation versus placebo, along with continued, non-plateauing weight loss—particularly at the higher dose. In addition, Altimmune has reached agreement with the FDA on key design elements for a registrational Phase 3 trial in MASH patients with moderate to advanced fibrosis, which he views as significantly reducing regulatory uncertainty.

Trucchio also emphasizes pemvidutide’s differentiated safety and tolerability, noting low discontinuation rates, absence of serious treatment-related adverse events, and no need for dose titration, which together enhance its competitive profile in MASH and obesity. From a valuation perspective, he applies a risk-adjusted DCF and sum-of-the-parts framework, assigning relatively high probabilities of success for pemvidutide in both MASH and obesity, and using conservative discount and terminal multiple assumptions that still support a firm value around $1.4 billion. This analysis underpins his $12 price target and justifies the Buy rating, while acknowledging standard sector risks such as clinical, competitive, commercial, reimbursement, pricing, capital markets, and geopolitical factors.