J.P. Morgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck has maintained their neutral stance on UPS stock, giving a Hold rating today.
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Brian Ossenbeck has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to UPS’s evolving capital structure and cash flow profile. The latest 10-K shows a sharp rise in the use of finance leases in 2025, which lowers reported capital expenditures but simultaneously increases balance‑sheet debt, raising questions about the sustainability and transparency of free cash flow supporting the dividend.
The sizable step‑up in aircraft lease obligations, longer average lease terms, and higher discount rates suggest UPS is leaning more heavily on lease financing at a time when 2026 capex is projected to fall meaningfully. Because the filing does not fully clarify how much of the anticipated capex decline stems from this shift versus underlying demand drivers, Ossenbeck expects these disclosures to keep investor sentiment cautious, supporting a neutral stance rather than a more decisive bullish or bearish call on the shares.
In another report released today, TipRanks – PerPlexity also downgraded the stock to a Hold with a $128.00 price target.