Neurocrine Biosciences: Ingrezza-Driven Strength and Risk-Balanced Pipeline Support Buy Rating Despite Valbenazine Setback

Bank of America Securities analyst Tazeen Ahmad maintained a Buy rating on Neurocrine yesterday and set a price target of $191.00.

Tazeen Ahmad has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Neurocrine’s core commercial strength and risk-balanced pipeline outlook. Despite the phase 3 valbenazine trial in dyskinetic cerebral palsy failing to meet its primary and key secondary endpoints, she notes that investor expectations for this study were already muted and that no value for this indication was included in her financial model. The company also indicated that the safety profile remained in line with previous experience, and more detailed data will be presented at a future scientific forum, which may help refine views on the broader VMAT2 inhibitor strategy.

Tazeen Ahmad emphasizes that the Buy rating and $191 price objective are supported primarily by her constructive view on the continued commercial performance of Ingrezza and the anticipated contribution from Crenessity. She views Neurocrine’s development pipeline as broad and strategically important, but conservatively refrains from assigning standalone value to most programs until additional de-risking data emerge. At present, she notes that the net impact of the pipeline is a modest drag on her valuation, yet the strength of the existing franchises and the company’s financial position underpin her positive stance on the shares. Overall, the recent trial setback does not materially alter her long-term investment thesis, leading her to maintain a Buy recommendation.