Murphy USA: Fuel and Nicotine Headwinds, Flat EBITDA Outlook Drive Sell Rating and Expected Underperformance

Analyst Lisa Lewandowski of Bank of America Securities reiterated a Sell rating on Murphy USA, reducing the price target to $350.00.

Lisa Lewandowski has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors tied to Murphy USA’s recent performance and outlook. The company’s latest quarter showed fuel margins that, while slightly better than last year, fell short of what the market was looking for, and management’s guidance points to essentially flat EBITDA in 2026, which dampens the near‑term growth story.

In addition, the business remains heavily exposed to fuel and nicotine, at a time when low gasoline prices, subdued fuel-price volatility, and declining cigarette volumes limit earnings momentum. Planned expansion with larger new stores is expected to lift costs before those sites fully ramp, further weighing on profitability, so valuation has been reset lower and the stock is expected to underperform peers despite continued shareholder returns.