Moderna’s Hold Rating: Impact of CMVictory Study and Vaccine Program Risks

In a report released yesterday, Geoff Meacham from Citi maintained a Hold rating on Moderna, with a price target of $28.00.

Geoff Meacham has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors impacting Moderna’s current and future prospects. The recent phase 3 CMVictory study for the mRNA-1647 vaccine candidate did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint, which has tempered expectations regarding its commercial potential. Despite this setback, the impact on Moderna’s stock is expected to be limited as the market had already adjusted its expectations.
Additionally, Moderna’s reliance on vaccine programs poses a risk in the near to mid-term, and while there is progress in the oncology pipeline, commercialization is still some years away. The discontinuation of the congenital CMV program does not affect the company’s 2025 guidance or its 2028 break-even goal, as management had anticipated minimal revenue from the ‘1647 program. Consequently, the target price has been adjusted to $28, reflecting these developments.