Moderna: Solid Q1 Beat and EU Combo Vaccine Approval Offset by Regulatory Setbacks and Long Path to 2028 Breakeven, Justifying Hold Rating

William Blair analyst Myles Minter has maintained their neutral stance on MRNA stock, giving a Hold rating on April 28.

Myles Minter has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors, balancing near‑term execution with longer-term uncertainty. Moderna outperformed expectations on both revenue and earnings, helped by stronger-than-anticipated international COVID vaccine sales and a large one-time legal settlement that boosted reported gross margin and narrowed the quarterly loss.

At the same time, Minter sees structural challenges that temper the upside. Management is still targeting a breakeven point around 2028, but recent U.S. regulatory setbacks for the standalone flu vaccine and the flu/COVID combination raise questions about the pace and scale of future growth, and the new EU approval for the combo product is not expected to significantly lift revenue until 2027, limiting the near‑term catalyst path for the stock.

Minter covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Dianthus Therapeutics, Moderna, and Immunic. According to TipRanks, Minter has an average return of 34.6% and a 59.09% success rate on recommended stocks.