Moderna Downgraded to Sell as Flu Program Uncertainty and Regulatory Risks Outweigh Upside

Analyst Alec Stranahan from Bank of America Securities reiterated a Sell rating on Moderna and increased the price target to $31.00 from $27.00.

Alec Stranahan has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors tied to Moderna’s flu program and overall risk‑reward profile. Although the FDA has agreed to review the mRNA‑1010 flu vaccine filing and Moderna has restored U.S. flu sales to its forecasts, the analyst still views the regulatory route as complex, with only modest expected market share and execution risk that keeps visibility limited.

Stranahan emphasizes that the FDA’s acceptance of the filing should be seen as a willingness to evaluate the data rather than a signal of likely approval, especially given lingering concerns about trial design versus the current standard of care. He also highlights uncertainty around the scope and cost of required post‑marketing studies and the timing/stance of key bodies like ACIP, leading him to conclude that the shares remain overvalued relative to these uncertainties, even after slightly raising the price objective to $31.

Stranahan covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Novavax, Moderna, and Crispr Therapeutics AG. According to TipRanks, Stranahan has an average return of 3.4% and a 50.80% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released on February 11, Leerink Partners also maintained a Sell rating on the stock with a $12.00 price target.