MGP Ingredients: Solid Q4, Soft 2026 Outlook and Distilling Headwinds Justify Hold Rating

TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow has maintained their neutral stance on MGPI stock, giving a Hold rating today.

Robert Moskow has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to MGP Ingredients’ outlook and valuation. While the company delivered stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results, management’s 2026 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell notably short of market expectations, signaling that U.S. spirits demand remains under pressure. The projected steep declines in Distilling Solutions sales and profits, driven by the roll-off of key contracts and broader category headwinds, suggest another challenging year ahead.

At the same time, Moskow sees some offsetting positives that keep the stock from a more negative rating. The Branded Spirits segment is expected to contract modestly in 2026, but ongoing growth in premium-plus brands like Penelope and planned pruning of lower-priority labels should support gradual margin improvement. Because the long-term thesis still relies on a recovery in Branded Spirits to narrow the valuation gap with branded peers, but near-term industry softness clouds visibility, he views a Hold as appropriate pending clearer evidence of a sustained rebound.

Moskow covers the Consumer Defensive sector, focusing on stocks such as General Mills, Church & Dwight, and PepsiCo. According to TipRanks, Moskow has an average return of 1.7% and a 46.36% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released today, TipRanks – xAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $20.50 price target.