MDA: Robust Growth Pipeline, High Revenue Visibility, and Discount Valuation Support Buy Rating

In a report released today, Justin Lang CFA from Morgan Stanley maintained a Buy rating on MDA Space Ltd, with a price target of C$51.00.

Justin Lang CFA has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to MDA’s strong growth visibility and expanding opportunity set. He highlights that a roughly $40 billion, five-year pipeline—about double last year’s level and around ten times the current backlog—positions the company for substantial new awards across both space and defense programs, even after a sharp year-to-date share price gain.

He also notes that about 90% of projected 2026 revenue is already backed by an approximately $4 billion backlog, which reduces forecast risk and underpins cash flow guidance that assumes limited incremental wins at the low end. In addition, around $10 billion of the pipeline consists of higher-probability contracts, while elevated capital spending to expand capacity (including AURORA production) is seen as a strategic response to a robust demand environment, all against a valuation that still trades at a discount to peers and offers an attractive bull-bear skew.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 51 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of MDA in relation to earlier this year.