UBS analyst Arpine Kocharyan maintained a Buy rating on Mattel yesterday and set a price target of $30.00.
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Arpine Kocharyan has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that, in his view, support Mattel’s long‑term value despite near‑term guidance disappointment. While the FY’26 earnings outlook is dampened by about $150M of planned “strategic investments” and a lighter underlying revenue guide once JV-related sales are stripped out, these investments are directed toward new capabilities and marketing that are expected to strengthen the business over time.
He also highlights that margins remain broadly aligned with market expectations and that management is already running ahead of cost‑saving targets, which should underpin profitability as investments normalize. In addition, Mattel is significantly enhancing shareholder returns through an aggressive share repurchase program—historical buybacks plus a newly authorized $1.5B through 2028—which he estimates can meaningfully lift EPS, reinforcing the case for upside in the stock.