Maintaining Buy on Pagaya: Share Pullback Overstates Risks as Profitability Outperforms Despite Softer Growth Outlook

Kyle Joseph, an analyst from Stephens, maintained the Buy rating on Pagaya Technologies Ltd. The associated price target is $25.00.

Kyle Joseph has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors, including the view that the recent share price drop overstates the risks implied by Pagaya’s updated outlook. He acknowledges that revenue and volume came in lighter and that 2026 guidance is softer, but interprets the underwriting tightening as a proactive move to safeguard against potential macro and credit headwinds rather than a sign of current credit stress.

At the same time, Joseph notes that fourth-quarter profitability and net income outpaced expectations, showing the underlying earnings engine remains solid despite slower network volume growth. He therefore trims his estimates and lowers the target price to reflect more conservative growth assumptions, yet maintains an Overweight/Buy stance, arguing that the stock now offers attractive value for investors willing to look through near-term growth moderation in favor of long-term stability and earnings potential.

In another report released yesterday, KBW also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $30.00 price target.