InPost: Elevated Investment and Takeover Offer Limit Near-Term Upside, Justifying Hold Rating

In a report released today, David Kerstens from Jefferies downgraded InPost S.A. to a Hold, with a price target of €15.60.

David Kerstens has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors, including InPost’s decision to accelerate spending on AI tools and network expansion, which will compress profitability in the near term. The company plans a sizable rollout of additional parcel machines and higher capex, which, alongside more competitive pricing and service investments, leads to a notable cut in forecast EBITDA and leaves free cash flow only roughly balanced.

At the same time, the shares have already rallied sharply year-to-date, largely reflecting the €15.6 per share recommended takeover offer, which now anchors upside potential. As a higher bid from another party appears improbable and the current price is close to the offer level, the risk‑reward profile looks more neutral than compelling, justifying a Hold stance rather than a Buy or Sell recommendation.