Hold Rating for Ascopiave S.p.A. Amid Fair Valuation and Low Visibility on Growth Prospects

In a report released yesterday, Monica Bosio from Intesa Sanpaolo maintained a Hold rating on Ascopiave S.p.A. (0DME – Research Report), with a price target of €3.40.

Monica Bosio’s rating is based on several factors that influence Ascopiave S.p.A.’s current market position. The company’s valuation appears fair, with the market already accounting for potential mergers and acquisitions in the gas distribution sector. Although there are opportunities for external growth in their core business, the visibility of these prospects is currently low, making it premature to factor them into the valuation.
Additionally, while the 2025 financial outlook shows a significant increase in EBITDA driven by mergers and extraordinary gains, the adjusted EBITDA remains stable due to organic growth being offset by lower returns. The net income is expected to improve, yet the net debt is anticipated to be impacted negatively by changes in the company’s perimeter. Despite an upward revision in earnings estimates due to regulatory changes, the dividend yield is not particularly attractive compared to other Italian utilities, and the stock trades at a fair premium. These elements contribute to the Hold rating.

0DME’s price has also changed moderately for the past six months – from EUR2.745 to EUR3.250, which is a 18.40% increase.