Gartner: Hold Stance Amid Slowing Contract Growth, Underwhelming Guidance, and AI Headwinds

Toni Kaplan, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, maintained the Hold rating on Gartner. The associated price target was lowered to $200.00.

Toni Kaplan has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to slowing contract value momentum and a cautious outlook. CV growth weakened to just 1% year over year and, even after adjusting for federal cancellations, the trend still showed a notable sequential slowdown, underscoring concerns that AI-enabled alternatives and macro uncertainty are making it harder for Gartner to add seats and retain clients. Management reiterated that current conditions remain difficult and removed its prior expectation of reaching high-single-digit CV growth by 2026, now speaking only of eventual acceleration, which signals a less confident trajectory.
Guidance compounded the cautious stance, with revenue, research, and EBITDA targets all arriving below internal and Street estimates, suggesting that near-term upside is limited. Although margins could beat the lowered guide given the company’s history of over-delivering on EBITDA, the mix of decelerating growth, softer outlook, and potential AI-related headwinds led Kaplan to trim the price target to $200 while staying on the sidelines with an Equal-weight recommendation.

Kaplan covers the Industrials sector, focusing on stocks such as Equifax, ARAMARK Holdings, and Cintas. According to TipRanks, Kaplan has an average return of 1.9% and a 57.57% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released yesterday, TipRanks – Google also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $205.00 price target.